Five Models Forecast the 2026 Midterms
Verafy Forecast puts every 2026 Senate race and House district to a panel of five AI models, and shows where they disagree instead of averaging it away.
Verafy Forecast is a forecast of the November 3, 2026 US midterm elections. Five AI models give a lean for every Senate race and every House district, and the page pools them into one forecast per chamber. It is part of Verafy.
It is an AI forecast. It is not a poll and not an official result, and the page says so at the top.
The front page. Both chambers, both maps, one panel.
The panel is five models from five companies
GPT-6 Astra, Claude Fable 5.1, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.7 and DeepSeek V4 Pro each forecast the races on their own. The panel average sets the maps and the seat counts. No single vendor's model decides the result.
Every model's call stays on the page
A "By model" section lists each model's Senate and House call next to the swarm average. The models do not agree. On the October 28 run, Gemini 4 Argon gave Republicans an 82% chance of holding the Senate. The panel average was 42%.
The same section counts the races each model would not answer. Each one answered between 374 and 424 of the 435 House districts. The page reports the gaps instead of filling them.
The forecast keeps a history
A new forecast runs each day. A rewind control shows the forecast on any day up to Election Day, and a chart tracks the chance of control over time.
Reading a published race is free. Running a forecast on demand costs 200 credits.