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Rex St. John
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Verafy Forecast

A forecast of the 2026 US midterms from a panel of five AI models, with a lean for every Senate race and every House district.

Problem

Election forecasts come from one model or one pollster. You get a single number and no view of how far the people making it disagree.

Solution

Forecast puts the 2026 US midterms to a panel of five models: GPT-6 Astra, Claude Fable 5.1, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.7 and DeepSeek V4 Pro. Each one gives a lean for every Senate race and every House district. The page pools them into one forecast per chamber, draws both maps state by state, and keeps a daily history you can rewind to any day before Election Day.

Reading a published race is free. Running a fresh forecast costs 200 credits.

Analysis

The page shows each model's call next to the average instead of hiding it. On the October 28 run, Gemini 4 Argon gave Republicans an 82% chance of holding the Senate while the panel average was 42%. A single-model forecast would have printed one of those numbers with no sign of the other.

The cost is coverage. Models decline some races, so each one answered between 374 and 424 of the 435 House districts, and the page counts the gaps rather than filling them.

Screens

  • The Verafy Forecast page for the 2026 US midterms, with the Senate and House chances of Republicans keeping the majority at the top right and tile maps of the Senate and House races by state below
    Every number on the page comes from the panel. The page says so above the fold: an AI forecast, not a poll or an official result.